The Second Wave

When do we lift restrictions?

According to Trump, almost immediately. He has a plan. Again. How has that plan worked out so far?

So, here’s reality. One case of the new coronavirus sometime in mid to late December in China has turned into 2,250,000 cases world-wide in four months (as of the time of this writing). The spread of this virus is largely unprecedented and widely misunderstood. That is, even doctors and scientists are adjusting how they deal with the virus on a daily basis as it seems to keep shifting under our feet.

The virus has mutated several times since leaving China. Who knows what it will do next.

So, when we get to a certain level (flattening the curve), we have it under control, right? The short answer is no. To this point, only one country seems to have the virus under control. Greenland. They have had 11 cases and all of them have recovered with no new cases for over a week. The virus can take up to 14 days to show itself and all the while the carrier is contagious. If Greenland passes the 14 day mark without another new case, they can go about their daily lives... and not let a single soul near their shores.

The idea that the States can start to open up if they have “a few” cases is backward thinking. That’s what got them into this mess in the first place. Remember when D.T. said, “We have it totally under control. It’s one person coming in from China and we have it under control. It’s going to be just fine.”

Three months later there are 677,570 cases of fine and 34,617 deaths in the United States. Yup. That’s fine alright.

There are no back doors we can slip out of. There are no magic elixirs or potions or notions that cure the disease. That day will come about a year from now if we get it right. If we don’t, it could be two years. And, we aren’t going to vaccinate everyone in a week... or a month. It will take several months to get enough people vaccinated to curb the flow.

One case turned into 2,250,000 and rising. 150,000 dead people and rising.

As long as there is one new case in a district, there may be more.

I get the idea that the economy is crashing. It’s crashed before. And it will again. And it’s always come back. When this is over, people will start buying things again. They will pay their utility bills and their rent. They will get their car repaired and buy new toys for little Jimmy and Jenny. They will get renovations done and get their hair cut and buy new clothing. They will return to jobs and complain about leaving home every morning. The recovery will be slow and it will happen.

But those same people can’t bring their grandparents back from the dead. Or their aunt or uncle or parents or spouses. Or that really smart kid who happened to have asthma or diabetes or cancer and didn’t make it because her parents had to go back to work before it was over and brought home something she couldn’t handle.

The ultimate number to reduce restrictions isn’t “a few new cases”. A few new cases means there are more new cases to come and no-one knows where they are. It's very difficult to stop an invisible, moving target.  

The number is zero. Zero cases for a minimum of 14 days. Zero cases in a district where not one single solitary person is coming across their border. Zero cases is the only acceptable number... period. Otherwise, we are repeating 1919 and inviting the second wave.

Until we get that through our heads, this is going to be a long, long ride.