When do we lift restrictions?
According
to Trump, almost immediately. He has a plan. Again. How has that plan worked
out so far?
So,
here’s reality. One case of the new coronavirus sometime in mid to
late December in China has turned into 2,250,000 cases world-wide in
four months (as of the time of this writing). The spread of this
virus is largely unprecedented and widely misunderstood. That
is, even doctors and scientists are adjusting how they deal with the
virus on a daily basis as it seems to keep shifting under our feet.
The
virus has mutated several times since leaving China. Who knows what
it will do next.
So,
when we get to a certain level (flattening the curve), we have it
under control, right? The short answer is no. To this point, only one
country seems to have the virus under control. Greenland. They have
had 11 cases and all of them have recovered with no new cases for
over a week. The virus can take up to 14 days to show itself and all the
while the carrier is contagious. If Greenland passes the 14 day mark
without another new case, they can go about their daily lives... and
not let a single soul near their shores.
The
idea that the States can start to open up if they have “a few”
cases is backward thinking. That’s what got them into this mess in
the first place. Remember when D.T. said, “We have it totally
under control. It’s one person coming in from China and we have it
under control. It’s going to be just fine.”
Three
months later there are 677,570 cases of fine and 34,617 deaths in the United States. Yup.
That’s fine alright.
There
are no back doors we can slip out of. There are no magic elixirs or
potions or notions that cure the disease. That day will come about a
year from now if we get it right. If we don’t, it could be two
years. And, we aren’t going to vaccinate everyone in a
week... or a month. It will take several months to get enough people
vaccinated to curb the flow.
One
case turned into 2,250,000 and rising. 150,000 dead people and rising.
As
long as there is one new case in a district, there may be more.
I
get the idea that the economy is crashing. It’s crashed before. And
it will again. And it’s always come back. When this is over, people
will start buying things again. They will pay their utility bills and
their rent. They will get their car repaired and buy new toys for
little Jimmy and Jenny. They will get renovations done and get their
hair cut and buy new clothing. They will return to jobs and complain about leaving home every morning. The recovery will be slow and it will
happen.
But
those same people can’t bring their grandparents back from the
dead. Or their aunt or uncle or parents or spouses. Or that really smart kid who
happened to have asthma or diabetes or cancer and didn’t make it because her parents had
to go back to work before it was over and brought home something she
couldn’t handle.
The ultimate number to reduce restrictions isn’t “a few new cases”. A few new cases means there are
more new cases to come and no-one knows where they are. It's very difficult to stop an invisible, moving target.
The
number is zero. Zero cases for a minimum of 14 days. Zero cases in a
district where not one single solitary person is coming across their
border. Zero cases is the only acceptable number... period. Otherwise, we are repeating 1919 and inviting the second wave.
Until
we get that through our heads, this is going to be a long, long ride.